
It is never too late for a bit of post-qualifying speculation, right? Formula 1 has been off for nearly three long weeks and knockout qualifying at the Shanghai International Circuit produced more than a few surprises for the upcoming Chinese Grand Prix. Let’s get to it.
Working through the qualifying sessions, HRT, Marussia, Caterham, and Jean-Eric Vergne of Scuderia Toro Rosso failed to advance out of Q3. This liens up with the performance of these teams and drivers thus far. Without any significant aerodynamic or chassis upgrades in store through the first three races, there is not much to report (or speculate) on among these teams. If the circuit stays dry, I would not expect any surprises from these teams relative to their grid positions.
The drivers that did not advance from Q2 brought about the first round of major surprises. Sebastian Vettel’s radio communications throughout qualifying show a more guarded, less aggressive twice-world champion in the RB8. On several occasions Sebastian asked his team whether the times he laid down (early in the sessions) were enough to advance him to the next round. For the Chinese Grand Prix, Vettel reverted to an earlier exhaust configuration utilized by Red Bull Racing at the onset of the season while his teammate, Mark Webber, chose the newer configuration. Whether one configuration and the aerodynamic benefits “suit” one driving style better than another might provide more of a psychological advantage than a technological one. Vettel was nearly on the bubble in Q1 and he was edged out very late in Q2 by Perez and Grosjean. From the looks of it, Vettel is searching for balance and comfort with the RB8, and clearly he is falling back on his heels a bit judging from his uncharacteristically conservative qualifying session in Shanghai. This is not a confident Sebastian Vettel, and the fact that Mark Webber handily out-qualified him in 7th qualifying position (moving to 6th after Lewis takes a 5-place grid position penalty for anticipated gearbox change). Vettel, who is really searching for speed, could make an unforced error as a result of experimentation, frustration, or impatience. Gherkins, anyone?
Poor old Felipe Massa put in a relatively uninspiring qualifying performance relegating him to a modest 12th grid position, which puts him at risk for being caught up in a Lap 1, Turn 1 melee or any number of midfield “racing incidents” during the grand prix. I hope his luck can turn around along with that of Scuderia Ferrari’s F2012. For Fernando Alonso, I would imagine he is doing reverse rain dances along with Pat Fry at the moment. They need another field-leveling agent like rain to be competitive, but the gods might not be so generous in Shanghai. The dry weather pace of the F2012 should still place Fernando in points-scoring position, but his overall points lead will likely diminish or vanish this weekend.

Mercedes are looking bullish in qualifying, but in 2012 we have already seen the team go backwards in race conditions as their rear tires wear out and grip falls off. Although Nico and Michael put on a good showing in qualifying, I suspect liberal use of DRS (and their DRS F-duct) and the long straights of the Shanghai International Circuit are making the Silver Arrows appear faster than they really are. The big issue will be how far back and how quickly the W03s fade through the field, or have they really found the speed they were looking for? Kamui Kobayashi outqualified Sergio Perez by nearly 8 tenths of a second, which is significant, but Kobayashi is a bit of a daredevil behind the wheel. If Sergio Perez demonstrates the same speed and consistency as he has done already this season, I would count him as a strong contender for a top-5 finishing position.
There was very little discussion of Kimi Raikkonen during the qualifying sessions, but in my mind he is continuing to put together a very impressive season after venturing away from Formula 1 for 2 years. Next to Alonso, he is one of the more naturally talented drivers in the field. As with his personality, Kimi is a dangerous dark horse this weekend (as he has been so far) for the regular top contenders. His qualifying and race results show a lot of parity, and I would not at all be surprised if he capitalizes on mistakes from those who out-qualified him. This could be the weekend that a consistent and strong Kimi Raikkonen finds his way back to the podium.

Last, but certainly not least, there is McLaren. Although the team looked uncharacteristically sloppy in Malaysia, Lewis put in a very strong qualifying effort this weekend. Taking away any qualifying advantages Mercedes enjoyed that might not last in the race, Lewis is the best of the rest and he has won here twice before (2008, 2011). As much as I like Jenson Button as a driver, he is behind Lewis’ pace by nearly a half second. The MP4-27 has the raw speed as we have seen during qualifying in Australia and Malayisia, but the results have not yet come for Lewis. Although it is still early in the season, Hamilton could start building momentum for a championship-winning season in China. If he gets the 5-place grid penalty for a gearbox change, Lewis will be hungry and aggressive to get to the front of the field. If the team and Lewis can minimize mistakes, the true speed of the MP4-27 should carry Lewis through the top of the field and into the lead. It will be up to Lewis to see whether his grit, determination, and focus can keep him at the front. If Jenson can catch Lewis, I doubt Lewis will be easy to pass.
Barring rain or the unexpected, this will be Lewis Hamilton’s week to stand on the top step of the podium.